In some circles, a lot of attention is being given to the Helmut Norpoth "Primary Model," which shows Trump winning over Biden by a landslide.
Time to burst the bubbles here. The website of the Helmut Norpoth "Primary Model" states that this projection was first posted on March 2, 2020, and was not revised since.
Of course the brunt of the damage to the U.S. population and our economy from COVID-19 have occurred since that time--not to mention the revelations of Trump ignoring Russian bounties on U.S. troops, the attempted manipulation of the election through fiddling with the Post Office, and all the social unrest fomented by Trump. Anyone who thinks that these issues won't affect the election outcome is delusional. I would put no faith in this model.
Quite frankly, one needed no special knowledge of statistics to see what was wrong with this projection. It was there on the first page of their website, and the date was there for all to see, with less than five minutes of looking--for anyone who cared to look.
Please join "The On The Mark Social Issues Blog" community on Facebook here.
Copyright 2020 Mark Koltko-Rivera. All Rights Reserved.
Permission is hereby granted to re-post or quote this blog entry, if and only if Mark Koltko-Rivera, Ph.D., is credited as the author.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Do remember the rules: No profanity, and no personal attacks, particularly on another person leaving a Comment.