Two Recommendations to Prepare for the Coming Post-Election Chaos

 

In this post, I describe a serious problem that I see on the horizon, and my suggestions for how to address it.

A recent article described a piece of an interview that the CEO of Bloomberg-funded political data firm Hawkfish gave to Axios (broadcast Monday night on HBO, 8/31/20). In the interview, that CEO predicted "mass chaos" after Election Day, because of what he calls the "Red Mirage."

It would work like this. On the night of Election Day, the more-easily counted in-person ballots may indeed show a narrow Trump victory. (Why? As I see it, a narrow in-person-voting Trump victory occurs because DT urges his followers to vote in person, not caring whether they are dead from COVID-19 by Inauguration Day). However, as that CEO noted, over the weeks following Election Day, this Red State 'victory' is seen to be a mirage, as the mail-in ballots are counted and Trump's illusory "win" erodes to a loss.

The result? "Mass chaos," the article says. I will go farther.

I think that the result could be substantial violence in many places in America.

One scenario that I consider more than plausible is that, as the mail-in ballots are counted, Trump loses his shizzle, attempts to declare the election invalid, and tries to send in troops or his own armed followers to confiscate mail-in ballots and put down the ensuing protests (which I expect would be epic).

After that? That all depends on how reasonable the U.S. military leadership and other agencies' armed officers are willing to be in dealing with a President who erupts in a Constitutional crisis. We might see a relatively brief period of civil unrest. Or, we might see a Second Civil War.

My Recommendations

For right now, focusing just on the safety of oneself and one's family, I suggest this:

1. Plan right now to stay inside your home, not going out past your mailbox, from the day after Election Day, for up to three weeks.
2. Start right now to store at least three weeks of food, supplies, and medications, to use during the three-week period following Election Day.

Why three weeks? Here is my thinking.

Week One: Trump celebrates his "win" by declaring himself the victor, and sending in armed troops and his armed followers to put down demonstrations against his premature declaration of victory.

Week Two: Trump begins to lose his fingernail-thin grip on his impulses as the mail-in ballots start to be counted, revealing that Trump's supposed victory margin is eroding. Trump orders mail-in ballots to be confiscated from all U.S. State Boards of Elections. Bigger protests ensue. Trump sends in armed troops to enforce his confiscation order, with directions to shoot to kill. Trump encourages his armed followers (militias and what he once called "Second-Amendment people") to "stand up for America" and take matters into their own hands.

Week Three: This is the minimum period of social unrest that we should prepare for. Stay away from the windows, folks. Don't count on Instacart, Amazon Prime, or other such services to be making deliveries during this period.

This leaves two questions for me to answer.

First Question: Should you protest Trump's actions during this period? I cannot answer that. Different factors--home and family circumstances, your responsibilities to others, your own and others' health statuses--need to be taken into consideration.

Second Question: Is this "mass chaos" scenario really plausible? Think about it. DT has already stated that he wants to call out military troops to deal with protesters--moments before he had police use tear gas to clear out DC protesters, just so that he could have a meaningless photo op at a church. DT has already expressed support for the illegally armed militia member who killed two people at a recent protest over police violence in Kenosha WI.

It has been said that the best predictor of future behavior in a given context is past behavior in that context. The scenario that I outlined is entirely plausible.

Get ready. If you start now (I post this early on September 1st), you have over two full months to prepare.

Peace be with you all.

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